Predicting politics: Professors model prediction markets

Political prediction markets -- in which participants buy and sell "contracts" based on who they think will win an election -- accurately predicted Barack Obama's 2008 victory. Now Northwestern University researchers have determined that these markets behave similar to financial markets, except when traders' partisan feelings get in the way.

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<p><a href="http://www.physorg.com/news151610852.html">Predicting politics: Professors model prediction markets</a></p> <p>Political prediction markets -- in which participants buy and sell "contracts" based on who they think will win an election -- accurately predicted Barack Obama's 2008 victory. Now Northwestern University researchers have determined that these markets behave similar to financial markets, except when traders' partisan feelings get in the way.</p>