Winter forecast looks mixed across nation

They can't predict next week's weather where I live. What makes them think they can predict the weather for multiple states?

Predicting trends and/or average values is quite different from predicting individual data points for a particular point in time.

Don't worry Gray, they will change the data afterwards to match predictions. :)

Since you obviously take issue with my above statement, MikeB, perhaps you'll substantiate such.

Don't worry Gray, they will change the data afterwards to match predictions. :)

And the global warming denialists will cherry-pick the bits and pieces of data that conform to their religious dogma while ignoring all the rest.

In the article, it's mentioned that Hawaii will be experiencing a cooler-than-usual winter. I have little doubt that this little morsel will be plastered across the denialist blogosphere as a validation of their deeply-held "global cooling" lunacy.

NOAA is deleting and adjusting temperature datasets as we speak.

http://www.climat.../?p=4395

Read the post and the comments. This is downright fraud. The NOAA does not want truth, only warming. They will apparently do whatever it takes so they can claim warming in the face of contrary data.

Just look at the forecast map. What does "more than 50% warmer" mean? Does it mean that the chances of it being warmer there are more than 50%? What does "more than 33% warmer" mean? Does it mean that there is about a 66% chance of it being cooler? Could NOAA mean that temperatures will actually be 33% to over 50% of normals? All the white is 50/50 for warmer or cooler.

This graphic could not be more opaque. But they are definitely trying to make people think "warmer"

Maybe someone here can explain it.

I think I found the answer to my own questions:

"I%u2019m pretty sure they have it wrong. The %u201C50%u2033 in the center doesn%u2019t mean %u201C50% warmer%u201D but simply %u201C50% probability of warmer than %u2018normal.%u2019 That%u2019s a big difference in meaning. There is no way that NOAA is projecting that the winter anywhere is going to be 50% warming than normal! If you understand how to read these charts, then you can also calculate the probability of %u201Cneutral%u201D and %u201Ccooler.%u201D Where the most likely probability is 50, neutral will be 33, and cooler will be 27. So, where there is a 50 percent chance that temperature will be above normal, there%u2019s also a 50 percent chance that it will be normal, or below normal!

The media doesn%u2019t get it, and I wonder of NOAA cares?"

Taking that further, where there is a "more than 40% warmer" means that there is a 60% chance of neutral or cooler temperatures, and of course, the "more than 33% warmer" means a 67% chance of neutral or cooler temperatures.

Now that you understand the graphic, you can understand that they have actually forecast almost no change over the entire USA.

Don't worry Gray, they will change the data afterwards to match predictions. :)

And the global warming denialists will cherry-pick the bits and pieces of data that conform to their religious dogma while ignoring all the rest.

In the article, it's mentioned that Hawaii will be experiencing a cooler-than-usual winter. I have little doubt that this little morsel will be plastered across the denialist blogosphere as a validation of their deeply-held "global cooling" lunacy.

Until AGW leaves the realm of hypothesis and is proven factual, you're just as big a zealot as the "denialists" you refer to.

Instead of the official government mouthpiece NOAA, maybe you would like to see the Accuweather long range forecast, they are calling NOAA out:

http://www.accuwe...uweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2008/11/you_think_its_cold_now.asp

Don't worry Gray, they will change the data afterwards to match predictions. :)

And the global warming denialists will cherry-pick the bits and pieces of data that conform to their religious dogma while ignoring all the rest.

In the article, it's mentioned that Hawaii will be experiencing a cooler-than-usual winter. I have little doubt that this little morsel will be plastered across the denialist blogosphere as a validation of their deeply-held "global cooling" lunacy.

Do your research, global cooling was the battle cry of the same AGW scientists you worship today, only about thirty years ago. The "denialist" say that the "experts" are reporting based on what gets them grant money and not science. No one credible is doing Global cooling studies because the dubious ones are trying to cash in on AGW and real scientist have better things to do with their time than to try to disprove a hypothesis.

Also, if "Denialist" use factual data gathered from this coming winter, and "faith based AGW Scientist" use a map generated by NOAA with a big red spot denoting our impending doom. Then which arguement is based on factual data?

Velanarris: at this point i'd settle for a decent corrolation or maybe a general trend. I realize i'm lowering my standards, but I expect something at least on par with the Pastafarians. Their inverse Pirate population to global warming theory is better proven than AGW.

Also, I think I saw that map in a movie or video game depicting the outbreak of a flesh eating zombie disease. can anyone tell me where they got it?

"The rest of the 48 contiguous states have equal chances of being warmer or cooler than normal, the forecast said. "

Wow, that is a profound forecast!

"THEY"... The NOAA has it nailed down alright.

Not that i'm jumping the fence, but colder than normal by about 3 degrees C in Brantford, Ont. since the beginning of November. Oddly enough the only thing separating southern Ontario and most of "warmer Michigan" is an enormous body of water which should be having a warming effect...

Let me re-load and take a few toes off the other foot.

I like the one recently in the news about last October breaking cold records right and left. That and there being 44 colder Octobers in the last 114 years.
http://washington...warming/