Swine flu origins revealed

A new analysis of the current swine-origin H1N1 influenza A virus suggests that transmission to humans occurred several months before recognition of the existing outbreak.

The work, published online in Nature, highlights the need for systematic surveillance of influenza in swine, and provides evidence that new genetic elements in swine can result in the emergence of viruses with pandemic potential in humans.

'Using computational methods, developed over the last ten years at Oxford, we were able to reconstruct the origins and timescale of this new pandemic,' said Dr Oliver Pybus of Oxford University's Department of Zoology, an author of the paper. 'Our results show that this strain has been circulating among pigs, possibly among multiple continents, for many years prior to its transmission to humans.'

Dr Pybus, along with Andrew Rambaut from the University of Edinburgh and colleagues, used evolutionary analysis to estimate the timescale of the origins and the early development of the epidemic. They believe that it was derived from several viruses circulating in swine, and that the initial transmission to humans occurred several months before recognition of the outbreak.

The team conclude that 'despite widespread influenza surveillance in humans, the lack of systematic swine surveillance allowed for the undetected persistence and evolution of this potentially pandemic strain for many years.'

Source: Oxford University (news : web)

   

• cb_brooklyn - Jun 11, 2009
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  Press Release - Researchers Question Nature, Cause and Treatment of Swine Flu Outbreak
  
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• AndrewJohnson - Jun 12, 2009
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  Nature magazine ay? It must be true that this virus is a real threat. It's of no interest to look back to the supposed pandemic of 1976 which never occurred. The worst thing that happened seem to be the 25 deaths linked to to the vaccine - and the vaccination program was quickly stopped.
  
  It's sad when prestigious journals publish papers which don't include enough context or historical research. It gives people a skewed view of reality - and it gives them little chance to see what is really happening.
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• Sepp - Jun 14, 2009
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  "Using computational methods, developed over the last ten years at Oxford, we were able to reconstruct the origins and timescale of this new pandemic..."
  
  Now what would be wrong with some actual investigation - getting out into the field and testing pig herds - to find out where the virus came from.
  
  Why should we believe what their mathematical model shows?
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