Public opinion a good predictor of terror attacks: study
September 17, 2009
Iraqi police and army survey a destroyed home following a car bomb on September 09, 2009, in the northern city of Kirkuk, 225 kms from Baghdad. Public opinion polls are good predictors of terrorist attacks, according to a study published Thursday which argues that terrorists do not act independently of their countrymen's attitudes.
Public opinion polls are good predictors of terrorist attacks, according to a study published Thursday which argues that terrorists do not act independently of their countrymen's attitudes.
An analysis of public opinion polls and terrorist activity in 143 pairs of countries has shown for the first time that when people in one country hold negative views toward the leadership and policies of another, terrorist acts are more likely to be carried out.
Princeton University economist Alan Krueger and co-author Jitka Malečková of Charles University in the Czech Republic have found that there is a strong relationship between attitudes expressed toward a foreign country -- indicated in surveys on foreign leaders' performance -- and the occurrence of terrorism against that country. The research is detailed in the Sept. 18 issue of the journal Science.
"Public opinion appears to be a useful predictor of terrorist activity," said Krueger, the Bendheim Professor in Economics and Public Policy. He has held a joint appointment since 1987 in Princeton's Department of Economics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. "This is the first study to relate public opinion across countries to concrete actions such as terrorism," he added.
Until now, the notion that public attitudes can contribute to terrorism has been inadequately explored, Krueger noted. The study's findings are significant, he said, because public opinion provides a valuable early warning signal of terrorism and helps researchers better understand the causes of terrorism.
The researchers carried out their study by mining public opinion polls of residents in 19 countries in the Middle East and northern Africa conducted by Gallup. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the job performance of the leaders of nine large countries. Those countries, selected because they are world powers in terms of size, population or military strength, are the United States, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom. The opinions, both positive and negative, were then linked to the number of terrorist attacks conducted against the nine world powers by people from the 19 countries between 2004 and 2008. The terror attacks were compiled by the National Counterterrorism Center.
In findings that are consistent with his earlier work, Krueger said there is not a direct connection between poverty and terrorism, contrary to a popular view. Economic status has more to do with target countries than it does with the states where the attacks originate, according to Krueger. Countries with advanced economies as well as a high degree of civil liberties, he said, are most likely to be the targets of terrorism.
The study does not explain whether terrorists act in response to public opinion or whether they are simply reacting just like the larger public to external events, he noted. In either case, however, he noted that public opinion surveys can provide a powerful indication of the likelihood of terrorist activity.
Krueger hypothesized that greater disapproval of another country's leaders or policies may result in more terrorist acts because it increases the number of people who provide material support and encouragement for terrorism, and increases the number of people interested in joining cells and carrying out terrorist acts themselves.
Extending the analysis, the researchers proposed that new leadership and policies in a country -- such as the election of President Barack Obama in the United States -- might change opinions in other countries and alter terrorist activity.
Krueger has published many papers about the origins of terrorism, and he has urged terrorism experts to apply the rigorous techniques of social science to questions concerning terrorism and its effects.
Provided by Princeton University
-
Ties to war-dead are a predictor of likely presidential disapproval
Aug 01, 2008 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Rich terrorist, poor terrorist
Mar 26, 2008 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Driving under the influence (of stress): Regional effects of 9/11 attacks on driving
Feb 02, 2009 |
not rated yet |
0
-
New study links early explanations of 9/11 to long-term adjustment
Sep 02, 2008 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Research Reveals Patterns of Terrorist Preparation
Jul 17, 2008 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Engineers build first sub-10-nm carbon nanotube transistor
Feb 01, 2012 |
4.9 / 5 (33) |
30
-
Something old, something new: Evolution and the structural divergence of duplicate genes
Jan 31, 2012 |
4.6 / 5 (7) |
1
-
The hidden nanoworld of ice crystals: Revealing the dynamic behavior of quasi-liquid layers
Jan 30, 2012 |
5 / 5 (5) |
1
-
Stock market network reveals investor clustering
Jan 27, 2012 |
3.9 / 5 (23) |
8
-
Of microchemistry and molecules: Electronic microfluidic device synthesizes biocompatible probes
Jan 26, 2012 |
5 / 5 (2) |
0
-
Can I forget a language?
Feb 10, 2012
-
The Biggest Lie Ever
Feb 09, 2012
-
What are the limits of learning?
Feb 06, 2012
-
Isn't that grammatically wrong?
Feb 06, 2012
-
What does it mean when traders are indifferent?
Feb 04, 2012
-
Peak of Our Civilization
Feb 04, 2012
- More from Physics Forums - Social Sciences
More news stories
Australian women reject 'I love u' texts
Australian women may have embraced the digital era, but they prefer a face-to-face declaration of affection to an "I love u" text and find men addicted to their mobile phones a major turnoff.
Other Sciences / Social Sciences
1 hour ago |
not rated yet |
0
A frank discussion of the power law and linking correlation to causation
(PhysOrg.com) -- Michael Stumpf a mathematics professor at Imperial College in London, and Mason Porter a lecturer at Oxford have teamed together to write and publish a perspective piece in Science regarding the in ...
US workers are 'giving away the store,' costing firms billions
Nearly 70 percent of the nation's service employees give away free goods and services from hamburgers to cable TV costing companies billions of dollars a year, according to a groundbreaking study.
Other Sciences / Economics & Business
Feb 09, 2012 |
3 / 5 (5) |
11
Employers feel no love for unscrupulous practice of 'service sweethearting'
A new study led by two Florida State University marketing professors finds that some frontline service employees who are rewarded for hikes in customer loyalty and satisfaction also may engage in "service ...
Other Sciences / Economics & Business
Feb 10, 2012 |
3.3 / 5 (3) |
10
New insights into how to correct false knowledge
The abundance of false information available on the Internet, in movies and on TV has created a big challenge for educators.
Other Sciences / Social Sciences
Feb 07, 2012 |
4.9 / 5 (7) |
9
|
Rapunzel, Leonardo and the physics of the ponytail
(PhysOrg.com) -- New research provides the first mathematical understanding of the shape of a ponytail and could have implications for the textile industry, computer animation and personal care products.
Cognitive impairment in older adults often unrecognized in the primary care setting
A new study published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society reveals that brief cognitive screenings combined with offering further evaluation increased new diagnoses of cognitive impairment in older veterans two to ...
AT&T customers surprised by 'unlimited data' limit
(AP) -- Mike Trang likes to use his iPhone 4 as a GPS device, helping him get around in his job. Now and then, his younger cousins get ahold of it, and play some YouTube videos and games.
Climate change causes harmful algal blooms in North Atlantic: study
Warming oceans and increases in windiness could be causing of an abundance of harmful algal blooms in the North Atlantic Ocean and North Sea, according to new research.
Hacker claims porn site users compromised
A hacker claims to have compromised the personal information of more than 350,000 users after breaking into a disused website operated by pornography provider Brazzers.
Primary care program helps obese teen girls manage weight, improve body image and behavior
Teenage girls gained less weight, improved their body image, ate less fast food, and had more family meals after participating in a 6- month program that involved weekly peer meetings, consultations with primary care providers ...