Study: Why the best soccer teams don't always win

(PhysOrg.com) -- A recent study, published in the October edition of the Journal of Applied Statistics, looked at soccer as being an experiment to determine which of two teams is superior, but their analysis found a high statistical probability that the best team might not win.

   

• nanotech_republika_pl - Oct 01, 2009
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  That's exactly right: soccer is really exciting to watch also because the outcome is more random, more than many other sports like baseball or NFL football.
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• defunctdiety - Oct 01, 2009
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  ...soccer is really exciting to watch...

  
  I can't believe you have this point of view and still call it soccer... isn't that some sort of cardinal sin?
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• googleplex - Oct 01, 2009
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  Any footer fan will say this is blindingly obvious.
  Players often get injured, coaches experiment, refs can make bad calls, the lads can have a night out before the game, monte zumas revenge, ... the list goes on.
  Clearly these sporadic events can influence the outcome. Score is a poor metric of a quality. I would want to see more frequent metrics like possession time, shots on goal, passing success.
  I think this article is a case of bad statistics.
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• freethinking - Oct 04, 2009
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  I use to be a leader of a boys group. During game time I often placed all the best players on one team and all the poor players on the other. It always amazed me how the poor players kept up with and often beat the better players. What I observed was that the good players tended to play as an individual, while the poor players kept passing the ball to other team members.
  
  I also coached a first grade basketball team (perfect season) our goal was that everyone would get a basket during the season and purposly told the better players to pass the ball to weaker players to achieve this. The other teams couldnt figure this out. They knew who the better players were and guarded them, but our good players passed to weaker players and they scored.
  I think poorer teams can beat better teams if they play as a team.
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• trantor - Oct 05, 2009
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  in typical american fashion, the article was illustrated with a photo of women football.
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• stoopid_rednek - Oct 06, 2009
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  While it's true that "minnows" often have the opportunity to knock off the elite squads from time to time, over the long run quality, especially quality of depth, will allow the better teams to rise to the top year after year. The English Premiere League is a prime example as the "Big Four"--Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea--routinely vie for the premiere league's championship. However, in response to the interesting study, the FA Cup, an all-league tournament open to the smallest teams as well as the top leagues, includes many exciting and unforeseen upsets that make every game a potential, "for-all-time" event that local fans will recall for decades. That's one reason why I love to watch whatever games are broadcast in the States.
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