Climate models don't tell the full story

(PhysOrg.com) -- Climate models that predict heavy rainfall don’t give the whole picture, according to the results of a study by NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research) scientist Martin Ziegler. He examined climate changes that have taken place over the past 800,000 years, and discovered that the melting icebergs in the North Atlantic and changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation have a great influence on the intensity of monsoon rains. He received his doctorate from Utrecht University on 2 October.

Ziegler analysed sedimentary deposits from around the world in order to work out which factors affect the strength of monsoons. The sedimentary deposits give a picture of the weather patterns of the last 800,000 years. Many climate models are based on gradual changes, for example the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, or changes in the solar radiation that enters the atmosphere. According to Ziegler, this means that important factors may be overlooked.

Wobbling axis

Ziegler demonstrated that it’s not just the solar radiation that has a great influence, but also the melting of great expanses of ice as a consequence of the way that the earth wobbles on its axis. Changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is essentially a periodic temperature fluctuation in the water of the eastern Pacific, were shown to have a great influence on the intensity of the monsoon. Many current climate models take into account the long-term effects of the periodic fluctuations in the position of the earth's axis, but look only at the changes in the distribution of solar radiation that reaches earth over a one- year period.

The monsoon rains affect large areas of Asia and Africa each year. During some periods there is much more or less rain than usual, which can often lead to floods. The strength of the monsoon can therefore have serious consequences.

Provided by NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research)

   

• GrayMouser - Oct 08, 2009
  • Rank: 3.7 / 5 (3)
  If somebody gave you a economic model and told you it could predict the economy 100 years from now would you believe them? Of course not! They can't predict next week's economy (even a month late.)
  Yet we have people with climate models that make that claim and people believe them even though the problem is orders of magnitude more complex and our understanding far less.
  Given this am I surprised that the models don't tell the full story? Hardly. Right now they are closer to fairy tales.
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• Australia_Mining_Pioneer - Oct 09, 2009
  • Rank: 1 / 5 (1)
  Unfortunately we are here presented again some conclusions based on the Fraudulent Geology, underlaid by such dogma (amongst many) of the stability of Earth on present orbital position, as naively believed it has been since creation, or alternatively accretion, till Judgement Day
  
  The situation is in fact worse when considering both the granulometry distribution of said sedimentations ( observed by author) & the reason behind it from silt to erratics discrimination. Obviously Mr Ziegler has not given the slightest thought as to what could be the mechanisms behind such evidence. An evidence seen in True Geology as : The Granulometric Cyclonic Distribution of Quaternary Deposits.
  
  Also the overall environment of the Earth seen by the True Geology is based on the UPL or Universal Pressure Law, with its ominous consequences in term of drift upon the Ecliptic in an Anisobaric & Anisotropic environment, with an irreversible petering out of fresh water feeding the Aquifers of the World.
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