Climate models don't tell the full story
October 8, 2009(PhysOrg.com) -- Climate models that predict heavy rainfall don’t give the whole picture, according to the results of a study by NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research) scientist Martin Ziegler. He examined climate changes that have taken place over the past 800,000 years, and discovered that the melting icebergs in the North Atlantic and changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation have a great influence on the intensity of monsoon rains. He received his doctorate from Utrecht University on 2 October.
Ziegler analysed sedimentary deposits from around the world in order to work out which factors affect the strength of monsoons. The sedimentary deposits give a picture of the weather patterns of the last 800,000 years. Many climate models are based on gradual changes, for example the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, or changes in the solar radiation that enters the atmosphere. According to Ziegler, this means that important factors may be overlooked.
Wobbling axis
Ziegler demonstrated that it’s not just the solar radiation that has a great influence, but also the melting of great expanses of ice as a consequence of the way that the earth wobbles on its axis. Changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is essentially a periodic temperature fluctuation in the water of the eastern Pacific, were shown to have a great influence on the intensity of the monsoon. Many current climate models take into account the long-term effects of the periodic fluctuations in the position of the earth's axis, but look only at the changes in the distribution of solar radiation that reaches earth over a one- year period.
The monsoon rains affect large areas of Asia and Africa each year. During some periods there is much more or less rain than usual, which can often lead to floods. The strength of the monsoon can therefore have serious consequences.
Provided by NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research)
-
West African Ocean sediment core links monsoons to global climate evolution
May 31, 2007 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Corals show Aussie drought link to Asian monsoon
Jan 19, 2007 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Changes in Earth's shape tied to climate
Jan 07, 2005 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Arizona monsoons unpredictable
Jun 18, 2007 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Monsoon rainfall amount stable for decades
Dec 01, 2006 |
not rated yet |
0
-
Engineers build first sub-10-nm carbon nanotube transistor
Feb 01, 2012 |
4.9 / 5 (33) |
30
-
Something old, something new: Evolution and the structural divergence of duplicate genes
Jan 31, 2012 |
4.6 / 5 (7) |
1
-
The hidden nanoworld of ice crystals: Revealing the dynamic behavior of quasi-liquid layers
Jan 30, 2012 |
5 / 5 (4) |
1
-
Stock market network reveals investor clustering
Jan 27, 2012 |
3.9 / 5 (23) |
8
-
Of microchemistry and molecules: Electronic microfluidic device synthesizes biocompatible probes
Jan 26, 2012 |
5 / 5 (2) |
0
-
Do some geologists actually act a lot like Randy Marsh?
Feb 11, 2012
-
Discrepancy between oxygen and carbon-dioxide levels
Feb 09, 2012
-
where gems are found in the world
Feb 09, 2012
-
Wind Waves in Reservoir ~ Wind run-up and Wind set-up
Feb 08, 2012
-
Balance of oxygen in the atmosphere
Feb 01, 2012
-
The case for a methanol-based economy
Jan 30, 2012
- More from Physics Forums - Earth
More news stories
Latin America mining boom clashes with conservation
Latin America is experiencing a mining boom as prices rise fuelled by a hike in global demand, but the region is also being hit by a wave of violent protests, strikes and rallies by environmentalists.
21 hours ago |
5 / 5 (1) |
1
Salvage workers begin pumping fuel from Italian shipwreck
Salvage workers Sunday began pumping fuel from the shipwrecked Italian cruise liner Costa Concordia, a day ahead of schedule, officials said.
13 hours ago |
5 / 5 (2) |
0
Political leaders play key role in how worried Americans are by climate change: study
More than extreme weather events and the work of scientists, it is national political leaders who influence how much Americans worry about the threat of climate change, new research finds.
Feb 06, 2012 |
5 / 5 (8) |
75
NASA budget will axe Mars deal with Europe: scientists
US President Barack Obama's budget proposal to be submitted next week for 2013 will cut NASA's budget by 20 percent and eliminate a major partnership with Europe on Mars exploration, scientists said Thursday.
Space & Earth / Space Exploration
Feb 10, 2012 |
5 / 5 (4) |
58
Humans may have helped the decline of African rainforests 3000 years ago
(PhysOrg.com) -- Large areas of rainforests in Central Africa mysteriously disappeared over three thousand years ago, to be replaced by savannas. The prevailing theory has been that the cause was a change ...
Scientists discover molecular secrets of 2,000-year-old Chinese herbal remedy
For roughly two thousand years, Chinese herbalists have treated Malaria using a root extract, commonly known as Chang Shan, from a type of hydrangea that grows in Tibet and Nepal. More recent studies suggest that halofuginone, ...
New method to examine batteries -- MRI from the inside
There is an ever-increasing need for advanced batteries for portable electronics, such as phones, cameras, and music players, but also to power electric vehicles and to facilitate the distribution and storage of energy derived ...
Google might launch Drive for cloud storage soon
(PhysOrg.com) -- Google's next big move, according to the Wall Street Journal, is a cloud storage service called Drive. Hardly first to the plate, Google is simply catching up to introducing its cloud reposi ...
A mitosis mystery solved: How chromosomes align perfectly in a dividing cell
Although the process of mitotic cell division has been studied intensely for more than 50 years, Whitehead Institute researchers have only now solved the mystery of how cells correctly align their chromosomes during symmetric ...
Lab study raises questions over nano-particle impact
Tests involving chickens have raised questions about the impact on health from engineered nano-particles, the ultra-fine grains commonly used in drugs and processed foods, scientists said on Sunday.
Starve a virus, feed a cure? Findings show how some cells protect themselves against HIV
A protein that protects some of our immune cells from the most common and virulent form of HIV works by starving the virus of the molecular building blocks that it needs to replicate, according to research published online ...
Oct 08, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (3)
Yet we have people with climate models that make that claim and people believe them even though the problem is orders of magnitude more complex and our understanding far less.
Given this am I surprised that the models don't tell the full story? Hardly. Right now they are closer to fairy tales.
Oct 09, 2009
Rank: 1 / 5 (1)
The situation is in fact worse when considering both the granulometry distribution of said sedimentations ( observed by author) & the reason behind it from silt to erratics discrimination. Obviously Mr Ziegler has not given the slightest thought as to what could be the mechanisms behind such evidence. An evidence seen in True Geology as : The Granulometric Cyclonic Distribution of Quaternary Deposits.
Also the overall environment of the Earth seen by the True Geology is based on the UPL or Universal Pressure Law, with its ominous consequences in term of drift upon the Ecliptic in an Anisobaric & Anisotropic environment, with an irreversible petering out of fresh water feeding the Aquifers of the World.