Global warming likely to be amplified by slow changes to Earth systems
December 20, 2009
Researchers studying a period of high carbon dioxide levels and warm climate several million years ago have concluded that slow changes such as melting ice sheets amplified the initial warming caused by greenhouse gases.
The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that a relatively small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels was associated with substantial global warming about 4.5 million years ago during the early Pliocene.
Coauthor Christina Ravelo, professor of ocean sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said the study indicates that the sensitivity of Earth's temperature to increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is greater than has been expected on the basis of climate models that only include rapid responses.
Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to increased atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures. Relatively rapid feedbacks include changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and sea ice. These short-term changes probably set in motion long-term changes in other factors--such as the extent of continental ice sheets, vegetation cover on land, and deep ocean circulation--that lead to additional global warming, Ravelo said.
"The implication is that these slow components of the Earth system, once they have time to change and equilibrate, may amplify the effects of small changes in the greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere," she said.
The researchers used sediment cores drilled from the seafloor at six different locations around the world to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels over the past five million years. They found that during the early and middle Pliocene (3 to 5 million years ago), when average global temperatures were at least 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than today, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was similar to today's levels, about 30 percent higher than preindustrial levels.
"Since there is no indication that the future will behave differently than the past, we should expect a couple of degrees of continued warming even if we held carbon dioxide concentrations at the current level," said lead author Mark Pagani, an associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.
Provided by University of California - Santa Cruz (news : web)
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Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.1 / 5 (19)
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.1 / 5 (23)
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.9 / 5 (17)
So, 5 million years ago, the Earth was exactly the same, least greenhouse gas-wise, as today?
I think this study just stated we've had absolutely no effect on this planet, and that we're just now coming into the understanding of Earth's more long-term climate cycles. That or humans existed 5 million years ago.
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.3 / 5 (21)
The cat is finally out of the bag - CO2 driven global warming is nonsense in spite of people like Pagani who don't see the writing on the wall. The charade is over!
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.8 / 5 (9)
Was the typical lag of CO2 to temperatures of 800-2800yrs also considered? Did those models consider that kind of time lag rapid or not?
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.2 / 5 (18)
Sorry climate scientists but your word will no longer be taken at face value. Let's see the data, the data adjustments, and the computer code. Unfortunately for honest scientists in your discipline, the coven amongst you which has been driving the alarmism and manipulating the temperature and proxy data, the peer review process, and the IPCC review process have been exposed for the charlatans they are. Beyond that there appears to be a huge and widespread problem with confirmation bias in climate studies. It's now up to mainstream climate scientists to show that they are interested in truth where ever it leads rather than proving a preconceived political agenda.
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.9 / 5 (9)
King Canute and his experience with the tides comes quickly to mind. There is a chance according to some models, I believe, that even if we halted ALL fossil fuel combustion at once it might not prevent a temperature rise larger than what those folks apparently committed to.
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2 / 5 (12)
1. The Arrhenius GHE requires BOTH an energy photon AND a GHG to create GHE warming. Adding CO2 by itself DOES NOT DO IT. It just leaves more excess CO2 in the air.
2. On the Earth at the moment we have an excess of CO2/WV, AND ALL the energy photons get used up by the existing GHGs at any instant of time, leaving CO2 and water vapor as excess. It is impossible to get feedback warming or any additional warming from adding more GHGs or CO2 UNLESS you ALSO add the energy photon. At any instant of time all the nergy photons are occupied by the GHGs. There is NO MORE ENERGY available.
If you add energy for every GHG/CO2 you are violating the LAW of Conservation of Energy.
Since solar insolation is essentially constant since the 1960s where does the energy come from???
My answer is gravity- see Excess CO2 Scenario at www.scribd.com/do...Scenario
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.8 / 5 (10)
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.8 / 5 (13)
I can think of several businesses who profit from claiming it to be false.
Government,
Real estate,
Water authorities,
Tourism,
The list goes on.
To find the truth on any subject, observe the direction the money flows!
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.2 / 5 (6)
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.8 / 5 (13)
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 2.5 / 5 (11)
All those profits will be reduced or eliminated (in the best case) from changes to the status quo. Politicians also stand to lose big by the loss of industry support for them by changing things from the way they work today.
I do agree that to find the truth, find where the money flows. In this case it is blindingly obvious to all but the truly blind, that the money is almost all on the side of maintaining business as usual for as long as possible.
Dec 20, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (10)
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (10)
1. Countries competing with US Industrial capacity. Handmade items are worth less if they can be made industrially. Global warming politics give the rest of the world the chance to tax off of and profit from America.
2. Those, like Al Gore, who sell 'Carbon Credits.' (If Republicans are the 'party of big oil' then why do they support nuclear power and nuclear reprocessing far more strongly than Democrats?)
3. Those, like Enron, who sought to create and profit from a market that trades carbon credits.
4. Those who believe that consumption is immoral.
5. Those in climate studies. (funding increased dramatically along with the belief in global warming.)
6. Anticapitalists - Democrats have made Global Warming a wedge issue and climate scientists have direct ties to Moveon dot org.
7. Various industries; There was an effort to ban incandescent bulbs in one state supported by makers of fluorescents.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.3 / 5 (7)
http://www.telegr...uri.html
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 4.3 / 5 (7)
In addition, anyone who can create energy cheaper or more efficiently will be able to make a LOT of money selling the technology to those that can't. The Chinese will probably pursue these tecnologies for all these reasons in addition to the fact that their air is beoming unbreathable, and their increasing scarce water is becoming undrinkable. If the US doesn't get cracking, we will be buying the technology from them.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 2.7 / 5 (7)
yes smart guy al gore sells carbon credits and he buys them from himself. you are a little parrot regurgitating the talking points of discredited people. obviously technology is the answer to every problem mankind has and entrepeneurs will endeavor to create those technologies. guess how that happens people use thier own capital to invest in research and development or they take thier ideas to investors looking to put thier capital to work. everything the global warming alarmists are trying to enact would hinder that process and damage the economy at large. all you have to do is look at at communists and anti capitalists in copenhagen demanding social justice reparations from the US and other industrialized nations. its a farce. most of this settled "science" is based on data from GHCN which most of these frauds base thier findings from. weve seen manipulated data from CRU,NASA GISS, and NOAA's "homogenization techniques".
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
So why do you think no one is doing so? Could it be the cheapest source of energy is coal?
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.2 / 5 (9)
And, again, it is not just a few emails at CRU that is the problem. There is more. Let me guess, you have not combed through the data yet? I have and I have not even finished doing so and I have found a number of damning items in both emails and documents, including their own experts panel, members of which went on record with statements regarding the fraudulent nature of the figures in the IPCC TAR. There is also the matter of their "consensus" which also consists of inflated and unscreened numbers of scientists that appeared in their official Statement.
The fraud runs deeper than the public has been led to believe and deeper than the mainstream media has been willing to admit. CNN now begins to see the light...
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.3 / 5 (7)
http://www.calgar...ory.html
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (8)
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 2.8 / 5 (9)
Next time I'll believe in what scientists tell me instead of the conspiracy theorists.
Once again, sorry for not believing the science.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.2 / 5 (6)
Really guys, can we get away from Al Gore bashing for just a few seconds, and refocus our ADD-riddled minds on the matter at hand? Or is this too much to ask?
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
What on the ever-warming Earth do climate models have to do with the article, RJB26? (And are you absolutely sure it's ritalin that you're missing?)
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
in typical alarmist fashion the article says its even worse than the climate models predict. look alive pink. i might be missing something else, what do you got?
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.3 / 5 (7)
Actually, the ARGOS data seem to show that the global oceans have not warmed at all. In fact, there has even been a slight decline. And this decline is in spite of rising CO2 levels.
Given that the oceans are supposed to account for 80% to 90% of global warming, and the oceans have not warmed as the models predicted or expected, can we really say that we still can expect warming of similar degree, based upon a model?
Only time will tell but there has been a lot of fraudulent data put up around to contend with.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (6)
Yeah. In "typical alarmist fashion", the article says the models appear to oversimplify the situation (isn't that one of the favorite "skeptic" arguments?) -- and through oversimplification, miss out on some important factors that must have played a role in past climate, but are not accounted for in present models.
The article (and the research) had nothing to do with any modeling, and everything to do with hard empirical science. But I guess that's too "alarmist" and "typical" for your tastes. You'd much rather have your daily steaming pile of BS from a favorite political rant blog...
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 2.6 / 5 (5)
Funny, just today I saw this article on physorg:
http://www.physor...986.html
Incidentally, if "global oceans have not warmed at all", how dost thou explain the rise in sea levels, and the record-low summer arctic ice coverage?
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 2.6 / 5 (5)
"the study indicates that the sensitivity of Earth's temperature to increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is GREATER than has been expected on the basis of climate models"
so like i said before- in typical alarmist fashion the article says its even worse than climate models predict.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
You ought to read a level-headed take on the "climategate":
http://www.pewcli...7-09.pdf
Then maybe you'd finally at least know a little of what you're talking about with respect to "cherry picked tree rings".
It's not paleoclimate, genius; it's contemporary temperature data. And that wasn't even addressed to you, so no wonder you once again have no idea what you're talking about...
How should it say it, then? If it's worse than the models predict, should it say instead that it's better than the models predict? Should it say that, unbelievably, and contrary to RJB26's esteemed expectations, current climate models fail to take into account certain long-term feedback mechanisms? What should it say, oh wise one?
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.9 / 5 (7)
Well, if the Chairman of the IPCC can accept money for Big Oil why can't everyone else?
http://www.telegr...uri.html
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 1.8 / 5 (5)
http://wattsupwit...-laymen/
and a couple more:
http://wattsupwit...-go-bad/
http://climateaud...e-trick/
"The researchers used sediment cores drilled from the seafloor at six different locations around the world to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels over the PAST five MILLION years"
not paleo but contemporary huh. "i do not think that word means what you think it means" to quote the "esteemed" philosher inigo montoya. your really not very bright are you. did you even read the article. as the case for agw unravels you see more and more articles like this. in my "esteemed" estimation i would not conflate inadequate climate models with PALEOclimate data in the first place. as we have seen your heroes at CRU bemoan the fact they just couldnt quite get the two to match.
Dec 21, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
I just quoted them. Ask them. It is inexplicable even by the crew of environmental scientists managing the ARGOS data. No one really knows why that is. Well, at least the honest scientists admit that they do not know. :)
Still does not change the fact that the ARGOS data shows no warming of the ocean and even a slight decline in global ocean temperatures. Take it up with them.
By the way, lakes are not global oceans. You really need to read your information better. :)
Dec 22, 2009
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (6)
Don't forget that the mean ocean depth is 3.7km and ARGO measures temperature and salinity to 2.0km. That leaves nearly half the ocean unmeasured at present so any of those scientists will point you in the direction. They may also point out that there is very little coverage in the Arctic or Southern Ocean (Ice tens to get in the way!). The the last three years have seen record Arctic ice melt so much as icecubes cool down a drink...
As in another post I will ask "where is your data?" Current data will show an oceanic temperature rise, or are you basing your evidence on a radio show in March 2008 for your science? As mentioned before the strong La Nina resulted in oceanic cooling in 2007-2008.
Dec 22, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (4)
That's not level-headed; that's a blogger's regurgitation of over-generalized and misinterpreted statements made by other bloggers. You haven't yet looked at the *actual* basis for this propaganda. Nor, by the sound of it, do you have any desire to. How do you spell, "brainwashed"?
I was referring to http://www.physor...986.html
What the hell were *you* talking about???
Dec 22, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (3)
I tried to find some info on ARGO ocean temps, without much success. All I came up with so far, was a spring 2008 news story about ocean temperatures plateauing for some time -- same story said that such temporary plateaus were not unexpected, and routinely showed up in climate simulations that nonetheless indicated long-term warming trends.
Here's a news release of slightly more recent vintage, that you might find interesting:
http://www.noaane...ats.html
Dec 22, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (4)
Here is one example for starters.
Antarctic ice has increased. July 2009 was the THIRD warmest out of 2006, 2007 and 2009. Do you not see the overall decline in that summary of the data?
Here is another one:
Well, that explains heating for July 2009.
Got anything better?
Dec 22, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (4)
I generally tend to trust NOAA's data, yes.
Yes, by a whopping 0.8% per decade. In the meantime, Arctic ice dropped by 6.1% per decade. Do you need help calculating net effect?
From the TITLE of the release:
"Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July"
We were addressing alleged lack of oceanic heating, were we not?
And I really don't know what orifice you pulled that "third warmest" thing from.
Partially; this year's El Nino was comparatively weak. Ironically, it also explains the record heating back in 1998 -- a year when we had a monster El Nino -- and also the year (surprisingly...not) picked as the baseline by those proclaiming "cooling".
Dec 23, 2009
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (3)
The ARGO network, on the other hand, actually measures water temperatures by rising, sinking and sampling along the way. We already know that land temperatures have risen and we know that air temperatures above the oceans have warmed somewhat. But, the oceans themselves have not. So says the ARGO data.
As to the "third warmest" "thing", I do not see it there now. Wonder why...
Oh well, I like this text better:
NINTH-WARMEST. This makes it even cooler. Thanks for pointing that out. Either I missed that or something else happened.
Dec 23, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
Yes Mikey, it certainly does work for the AGW proponents.
Dec 23, 2009
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (5)
The entire record is 3.5 decades deep. That isn't a large enough sample size to determine anything of relevance.
Dec 23, 2009
Rank: 4.2 / 5 (5)
No offense to the climate scientists intended but I would very much like to see both the raw data and the source code used to smooth out the 2003 to 2008 ocean temperature decline. I already know how CRU did it with the post-1961 tree-ring data because I have looked over the leaked source code.
Dec 23, 2009
Rank: 4.2 / 5 (5)
I think we seriously need to evaluate all of the data and determine why such declines show up at all. A lot more research and data measurement needs to be done than has been done. A lot of data will also need to be rechecked as well.
I write this as several inches of global warming are being dumped on my home....
Dec 24, 2009
Rank: 5 / 5 (3)
What is funny is that Arrhenius' greenhouse gas theory was dis-proven by his contemporaries AND as late as 1972 by Alfred Schack in his book Der industrielle W¨arme¨ubergang [The Industrial Heat Transfer] (Verlag
Stahleisen m.b.H., D¨usseldorf, 1. Auflage 1929, 8. Auflage 1983).
A recent paper on the history and physics for the less technical reader is in FALSIFICATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECTS WITHIN THE FRAME OF PHYSICS by GERLICH & TSCHEUSCHNER in International Journal of Modern Physics B (IJMPB)
http://ejournals....84X.html
Dec 24, 2009
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (3)
Peer Reviewed Study: 'Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within the Frame of Physics' by Gerlich & Tscheuschner
A new peer reviewed paper has been published in the International Journal of Modern Physics. G. Gerlich, R. D. Tscheuschner:
http://arxiv.org/...61v3.pdf
Dec 25, 2009
Rank: 4.7 / 5 (6)
Dec 25, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (6)
Dec 27, 2009
Rank: 2.5 / 5 (8)
why the big divide in the general publics perception of climate change between the states and the rest of the world?
why is the most noise coming from the states? is there a correlation between energy consumption and level of science denial?
does the general level of public education in science reflect the acceptance of scientific findings? does the factor that ID is accepted in the education system have any net effect on understanding science?
given that 10 years ago we had 3 years reserves of wheat globally and now after the last 3 years of drought and floods in the major grain producing areas, we have about 3-4 months of global reserves left, is it really surprising that some people are really quite scared and in acute denial of physical reality? and others are still holding on destructively to the status que.
Dec 27, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (3)
Pick something, anything, and it leads to doom!
nihilism creates a culture where their only conclusions they can have for the future is negative.
so smart, yet so stupid...
Dec 27, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
Of course your inclination is to call. Your likely a winner, and even if you lose, nobody will know until after your lifetime. So what's the big deal?
But as you fumble your chips in contemplation of a decision, an uncomfortable thought occurs. "If I'm right here today, I have little to gain. But if I'm wrong here today, my great-grandchildren will occupy this chair of mine and look only at deuce/seven off suit from every deal, if indeed the game is still playable."
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 3 / 5 (4)
That would be far better for all concerned so we can present the public with facts in truth.
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 1 / 5 (1)
How very poignant!
"Uh, it's global warming...uh...wait...uh...it's global cooling...uh...damn!...uh...it's "climate change"...yeah...climate change... Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain..."
My whole life it's been this way; ICBM drills. DEET. Three Mile Island. The ozone hole. Global cooling. Global warming. Now global cooling again?
This is all very reminiscent of the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". "The Boy Who Cried Climate Change" is the newest means by which our tyrannical governments seek to further oppress what should be an otherwise free world of free thinkers.
After this blows over there will be a new scare tactic.
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
A fine analogy indeed!
However this is true in both respects, my friend. Do we give our great-grandchildren a world which is devoid of freedoms and a global economy in ruins chasing the spectre of a now-less-than-credible claim of "climate change"? Do we give our great-grandchildren a robust and free society, possibly living on an earth which is vastly different than the one we see today?
All in all, I know that man is adaptable. From a solely pragmatic standpoint, it is a fool's errand to destroy ourselves in a vain attempt to address, not a perceived, but rather a *conceived* threat (moreover one which we admit we cannot ameliorate in any way).
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (3)
No we can't, and yes it is. By asking such a question, you are asking us to ignore pertinent observed data.
I would submit that these comments reflect a re-focus on the true threat posed by "Climate Change": the very proliferation of the subject.
At this point, anyone with a truly scientific mind would approach the data with nothing more than the mere curiosity of finding any other mundane and supposed anomaly. Simply put, the entire MOVEMENT (since, in reality, that's what it is -- a political movement) categorically lacks credibility.
The authors of these posts are conferring over the most critical data recorded yet.
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 3.7 / 5 (3)
Dec 28, 2009
Rank: 1.7 / 5 (6)
Why yes, yes I have. Just because someone disagrees with you on one topic does not mean they are diametrically opposed to all of your viewpoints. Even the UN has ranked Global Climate Change as being less significant than a host of other more pressing issues, the majority of which are economic in nature.
Jan 21, 2010
Rank: 3 / 5 (6)
Jan 21, 2010
Rank: 3 / 5 (6)
That's not accurate. My opposition is to portraying assumptions as fact within any science.
To be skeptical of unproven truths is the most scientific endeavor one can engage themself in.
I'm not the one who's downranking people for saying: "I say, let's start doing real science and stop manipulating the data to support a political agenda."