Predicting TB outbreaks based on the first 2 cases

Outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB) may be able to be identified by looking at certain characteristics of the first two patients, according to new research. If the first two patients are diagnosed within three months of each other, live in urban areas, and if one or both are of sub-Saharan African origin, there is a 56 percent chance that the two cases will lead to a large outbreak of TB, whereas if the patients exhibit none of those characteristics, the odds are just one percent.