How will the Arctic sea ice cover develop this summer?

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Simulated minimum sea-ice extent in 2008 when forced with atmospheric data from each year between 1988 and 2007 from the initial state of June 27 2008. Model derived ice extents have been adjusted with a constant offset to account for discrepancies w ...
Simulated minimum sea-ice extent in 2008 when forced with atmospheric data from each year between 1988 and 2007 from the initial state of June 27, 2008. Model derived ice extents have been adjusted with a constant offset to account for discrepancies with satellite-derived ice extents. The thick black horizontal line displays the yearly minimum ice extent from 2007. Credit: Alfred Wegener Insitute
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The ice cover in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer 2008 will lie, with almost 100 per cent probability, below that of the year 2005 – the year with the second lowest sea ice extent ever measured. Chances of an equally low value as in the extreme conditions of the year 2007 lie around eight per cent. Climate scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association come to this conclusion in a recent model calculation.


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